Positive Signs From Vietnam's Economic Growth Forecast

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In Vietnam's economic growth report published by UOB's Global Economic and Market Research Department on July 8, with positive developments in the second quarter, UOB Bank in Vietnam revised up its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 6.9%. instead of the previous 6%.

According to UOB's analysis, Vietnam's real GDP in the second quarter has recovered strongly, reaching an increase of 7.96% year-on-year, far exceeding Bloomberg's forecast (6.85%) and UOB's forecast (6.1% in Q2), as well as compared to the revised level of 7.05% in the first quarter of 2025.

Latest studies of many global banks, such as UOB or Citigroup, raised their forecasts for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 6.9% thanks to the early acceleration of exports and positive economic recovery in Q2 (Photo: VNA)

In the first half of 2025, Vietnam's economy will grow by 7.52% over the same period, which is the strongest increase in the first half of the year since 2011.

According to UOB experts, the strong growth momentum mainly came from businesses taking advantage of the 90-day period when US President Donald Trump suspended the policy of imposing "reciprocal" tariffs, instead applying a basic tax rate of 10%.

In the first half of the year, Vietnam's export turnover increased by 14.4% over the same period last year, reaching US $219 billion, while imports increased by 17.9%, reaching US $212 billion. Computers and electronic products continue to be the largest export group in the first half of 2025, soaring 42% over the same period, to US $47.7 billion.

This was followed by mobile phones (down 1.1%, to US $26.9 billion) and machinery and equipment (up 16.3%, to US $27 billion). These three commodity groups accounted for about 46% of the total export turnover in the period, showing Vietnam's great dependence on these sectors.

On the other hand, data from the Vietnam Industrial Production Index (PMI) shows that the manufacturing sector has not really returned to growth. In the last 7 months, the PMI was below 50 to 6 times, reflecting that the manufacturing industry is still facing many difficulties, especially due to the decline in new orders.

The latest report by Citigroup also raised its forecast for Vietnam's economic outlook. For example, economic growth is 7% from 6.6% as previously forecasted.

Maybank has also given a positive view on Vietnam's economic prospects, with Vietnam's economic growth in 2025 is expected to reach 7.3% from 6.2% previously.

In a newly published study by VinaCapital, Michael Kokalari (CFA) - Director of VinaCapital's Macroeconomic Analysis and Fund Market Research Department, also expressed an optimistic view on Vietnam's economic prospects based on the positive impact of the far-reaching reforms being carried out.

One of the highlights in the study shows that the combination of administrative mergers, deregulation and a focus on comprehensive economic development is contributing to strongly promoting infrastructure investment disbursement – which is considered an important driver for GDP growth.

Also, national-scale projects are also being accelerated. The time to start and complete some large projects such as Long Thanh airport (US $13 billion), Hanoi Ring Road and Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh City (US $13 billion) and Lao Cai – Hanoi – Hai Phong railway (US $8.4 billion) have been shortened by three years.

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