Notable Economic Growth of Vietnam: Solid Prospects Stemmed from a Stable Foundation

	Positive Signs From Vietnam's Economic Growth Forecast
	Thai Businesses Seek Cooperation Opportunities in Vietnam

ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) raised its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 7%, saying that Vietnam can lead the region in terms of growth rate this year. UOB Bank (Singapore) also recently revised its forecast from 6% to 6.9%, emphasizing a clear signal of recovery from manufacturing and trade activities.

On the other hand, World Bank (WB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Standard Chartered discussed Vietnam's stable macro foundation and flexible response in a volatile global economic environment. For example, a report published in July 2025 by ADB noted that trade and investment continue to be the two main growth drivers of the economy. As the public investment disbursements remained at a high level in the first half of the year, a momentum for the economy was created.

Another bright spot emphasized by international organizations is the growth momentum of exports and the stability of the trade balance.

In the first half of this year, Vietnam's export turnover reached US $219 billion, up more than 14%, contributing to maintaining a trade surplus, consolidating resources for exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.

In addition, Vietnam's investment environment continues to be positive, thanks to its geopolitical advantages, flexible production capacity, and improvement in the business environment.

The Mid-2025 survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (AmCham) shows that 61% of businesses maintain or increase hiring, while 52% recorded an increase in revenue over the same period. Many businesses in the fields of manufacturing, logistics and information technology have witnessed a strong recovery.

In the first half of this year, Vietnam's export turnover reached US $219 billion.

European Business Association in Vietnam (EuroCham) issued the Business Confidence Index (BCI) survey for the second quarter of 2025. Its results also reflect the stable optimism in the European business community in Vietnam. Nearly 3/4 of the respondents said that they are ready to introduce Vietnam as a strategic investment destination, especially in the context of global trade tensions that have not shown signs of cooling down.

Vietnam's economy still needs to be carefully monitored, for example, its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), as surveyed by S&P Global. The PMI continued to decline for the third consecutive month, closing at 48.9 points in June 2025, indicating a slight weakening in the business conditions of the manufacturing industry. The manufacturing industry is still facing many difficulties, especially due to the decline in new orders. According to S&P Global, Vietnam's export orders in June 2025 fell at the strongest pace since September 2021, equivalent to the decline recorded in May 2023.

Also, some factors related to international trade policy are affecting order forecasts and investment plans for the second half of this year. Although there is no immediate impact, policy risks, if prolonged, may put pressure on key export industries.

Suggestions from the forecast stressed the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability and institutional reform to protect the recovery momentum. Controlling inflation at a reasonable level - currently below 4% for 11 consecutive months - continues to be a key factor in helping Vietnam maintain monetary policy space. Promoting public investment disbursement, removing administrative procedures, and improving transparency in the business environment are expected to support long-term growth.

There is also a gap in business performance between fields. Technology manufacturing, logistics, and export services continued to lead growth, while some professional services, education, or real estate sectors recorded lower-than-expected results. This divergence partly reflects the economic restructuring process, in which industries that can innovate and adapt to global trends are playing a leading role.

Vietnam is currently in a relatively favorable position compared to emerging economies in the region. The highest growth target of ASEAN+3 in 2025 is completely achievable, provided that the whole system - from the State to enterprises - works together towards long-term efficiency and sustainable development.

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