Are US-India ties set for a rebound after Trump’s trade talk optimism?

Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday that his talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were “going great” and that a visit to Delhi could take place next year, though he declined to specify a date.

In recent weeks, Trump has sounded more optimistic about the bilateral ties, noting Modi’s pledge to scale back Russian oil imports, which analysts say could pave the way for a trade deal.

Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, said a Trump visit would signal a rebound in the relationship between Delhi and Washington.

“If you see carefully, they are moving forward in many ways, [in] defence cooperation, space cooperation and economic cooperation,” Pant said. “When Mr Trump comes to India, that will be symbolic of a larger turn in the relationship for the better.”

During Modi’s visit to the White House in February, he invited Trump to India, with the trip expected to coincide with the next Quad summit, tentatively scheduled for Delhi in November.

However, media reports in August indicated that Trump had cancelled plans to attend the meeting amid renewed tensions with India.

Formed to promote a free and secure Indo-Pacific region, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue – or Quad – brings together Australia, India, Japan and the United States.

“I think a postponement of a few months won’t matter much. But if there is no Quad summit for a year, then many will question whether the Quad continues to have relevance in the Trump administration’s scheme of things,” he said.

Vivek Mishra, deputy director of the Observer Research Foundation’s strategic studies programme, said the absence of a firm date for the next Quad meeting was not a good sign.

The grouping wary of antagonising power, he said, with the current Malabar naval exercise – hosted by the US near Guam and running until November 18 – appearing relatively restrained in terms of firepower.

Pointing to ongoing diplomatic manoeuvring, Mishra added: “The defence posturing aspect has taken a back seat. Within the ambit of the Quad, I don’t think they will reach a military agreement to do anything beyond the Malabar exercise.”

Greater push needed

On defence, both sides renewed a 10-year framework agreement last month.

According to Debsarkar, a key date to watch will be January 26: India’s Republic Day. A Trump appearance at the celebrations in Delhi would send a strong signal that India remained central to Washington’s foreign policy, he said.